Artist’s depiction of the Chinese unmanned space plane
From chinese social media under fair use.For anyone wanting to understand the geopolitical dynamics that will drive the 21st-century, China’s rapid moves in space and the integration of newly developed technology into a cohesive military strategy merits attention. I’ve written about China’s progress previously, in this very column, making the point that space is the ultimate high ground. Anyone who controls it holds a tremendous advantage.
Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership since 2015, China has fundamentally restructured its approach to space, cyber, and information warfare capabilities, demonstrating a clear ambition to establish leading capabilities beyond Earth’s atmosphere. This transformation was initially driven through the now-dissolved Strategic Support Force (SSF). Now, it has grown into a comprehensive military space program that signals Beijing’s determination to achieve not just parity, but supremacy in what Gene Roddenberry of Star Trek fame referred to as “the final frontier”.
While the number of Chinese space launch vehicles ascending to orbit has been rising sharply, the scope of China’s space ambitions extends far beyond exploratory, communications or even imagery missions. Recent investments have yielded sophisticated satellite systems equipped with robotic grappling mechanisms capable of interfering with or capturing adversary satellites. Also under development and test are "kinetic kill vehicles," (KKVs) designed specifically for satellite disruption and missile interception. These developments seen together begin to paint a picture of China’s growing proactive space warfare capabilities.
Adding to this arsenal of robotic grappler satellites and KKVs, are China’s tests of unmanned space planes. The United States has had the highly secretive X-37 unmanned space plane operational since 2010 and, under the auspices of the United States Air Force, has undertaken at least seven missions so far. China’s space planes, like those of the US, are also shrouded in mystery. They have sparked intense speculation about potential applications in reconnaissance, satellite disruption, or rapid payload deployment. The ability of space planes to leverage surprise and adaptability while presenting a rapid route to orbit for replenishment or repair of satellites represents a significant evolution in China’s space warfare and logistics capabilities.
The new Chinese HQ-19 system is capable of targeting threats within and beyond the atmosphere.
Twitter/David WangArtificial Intelligence serves as the backbone of China’s modern space strategy. The People’s Liberation Army has embraced AI to manage its extensive satellite networks and enable real-time threat analysis, dramatically increasing the speed and efficiency of decision-making during orbital operations. In 2023, China successfully conducted an experiment where an AI system was given control of the Qimingxing-1, a low-Earth orbit remote sensing satellite. The AI control system autonomously operated the satellite for 24 hours without any human intervention, demonstrating a potent capability in developing and fielding autonomous systems for space operations
The integration goes deeper still. AI-driven tools now empower the PLA to forecast, simulate, and execute space operations with minimal latency. Machine learning algorithms enhance surveillance and satellite-based reconnaissance systems, positioning China very well in terms of orbital warfare preparedness. This technological integration of AI and space capabilities will enable serious capabilities and provide a greater set of options to China’s military strategists.
The United States has not been idle in the area of Space Operations, either. The creation of the US Space Force in 2019 marked a watershed moment in American space defense strategy. General Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations, recently characterized China’s progress in space capabilities as "mind-boggling," underscoring the fact that US services have their eye on competitive developments and are likely to develop a robust deterrence. We are most definitely in for a period of heightened competition, a Military Space Race, if you will.
Central to the American response has been the integration of private-sector innovation. Companies like SpaceX, through initiatives such as Starshield, have become integral to addressing capability gaps. These partnerships have yielded advanced satellite constellations for missile tracking and intelligence support, taking advantage of the ingenuity of private enterprise to facilitate military capabilities.
But as I’ve pointed out earlier in this article, China’s space ambitions aren’t merely to catch up. They transcend mere military deterrence and represent a strategic bid to be a leader. This is not shocking in its own right, given China’s rapid growth, technological expertise and immense population. By investing heavily in space and counter-space technologies, Beijing seeks a military edge but also to reshape the international market for space, both in the civilian and military domain.
The expansion of China’s military space capability, occurring in parallel to similar efforts by Russia, puts forth a broader narrative where space is guaranteed to emerge as a contested theater. The growing influence achieved through space-based initiatives impacts geopolitical alliances and raises the stakes for nations dependent on satellite technology for communication, navigation, and defense. Just as the US and Europe have partnered with strategically aligned nations on space programs in the past, China can be expected to do the very same and open up space to a number of countries who would have taken much longer to get there on their own. The prospect of weaponized space is real—complete with satellite-killing capabilities and orbital disruption technologies—and it poses a challenge to the historically US-led space order where the US could simply assume that none of its opponents would be able to make use of space even remotely in the same manner as the US has for decades.
For better or worse, we are in an era era of increased militarization of space. Once the United States officially declared that we are in a period of Great Power Competition with “China as the pacing threat”, all Chinese technological developments that can deliver military advantage are necessarily seen in the light of this competition. And the list of technological developments is long and impressive. China’s rapid progression in space capabilities, augmented by AI and cyber integration, helps realize a new phase in China’s military strategy. A strategy that is characterized by a very comprehensive, omni-domain approach—fusing space, cyber, and artificial intelligence—illustrates Beijing’s ambition to command the strategic high ground of space.
As long as we are in a Great Power Competition, the United States will face quite a bit of pressure from the rapid growth in Chinese capabilities. If competition rather than cooperation is the reality we live in, then the US must continue to harness both military acumen and private sector innovation to adapt and compete. Since space has become an increasingly contested frontier, maintaining technological and strategic equilibrium – and even superiority – has become vital not just for national security, but to signal to allies that their alliance with the US can bring benefits in this critical new frontier. The evolution of this space-based competition will likely define military doctrine and international relations for the balance of this century and beyond.
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{URL}https://www.forbes.com/sites/amirhusain/2024/11/14/chinas-fast-growing-military-space-capabilities/{/URL}
{Author}Amir Husain, Contributor{/Author}
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