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gettyMcKinsey’s Technology Trends
Here are the trends that McKinsey identified in July, 2024 with the release of their “Technology Trends Outlook 2024”:
“The AI revolution (generative AI, applied AI, industrializing machine learning)
Building the digital future (next generation software development, digital trust and cybersecurity)
Compute and connectivity futures (advanced connectivity, immersive-reality technologies, cloud and edge technologies, and quantum technologies)
Cutting-edge engineering (future of robotics, future of mobility, future of bioengineering, future of space technologies)
A sustainable world (electrification and renewables, climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables)”
Gemini’s Technology Trends
Since generative AI led McKinsey’s list, I thought I’d ask Gemini about the list. I listed the technologies and asked Gemini to assess the list. Here’s what Gemini said:
“Missing Parts of McKinsey’s Technology Trends
McKinsey’s list provides a comprehensive overview of major technology trends, but there are a few areas that could be expanded or added:
Potential Omissions
Human-Centered Technology: While AI and robotics are mentioned, a broader focus on human-computer interaction, user experience (UX), and human-centered design could be beneficial. This includes areas like augmented reality, virtual reality, and wearable technology.
Data and Analytics Beyond AI: While AI is covered, there’s a broader spectrum of data and analytics tools and techniques that could be explored. This includes data governance, data privacy, data ethics, and advanced analytics methods like causal inference and probabilistic programming.
Social and Economic Impact of Technology: A deeper dive into the societal implications of technology, such as job displacement, digital divide, and social inequality, could be valuable.
Emerging Technologies: While some emerging technologies are touched upon, a dedicated category for truly groundbreaking technologies like synthetic biology, neurotechnology, and advanced materials could be considered.
Geopolitics and Technology: The intersection of technology and geopolitics, including issues like supply chain resilience, national security, and international technology standards, is increasingly important.
Additional Trends to Consider
Decentralization and Web3: The rise of blockchain, decentralized finance (DeFi), and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) represents a significant shift in technology and economic models.
Digital Health and Biotechnology: The convergence of technology and healthcare is leading to breakthroughs in diagnostics, treatments, and personalized medicine.
Education and Skills Development: The role of technology in education, including online learning, personalized learning, and skills training for the future workforce, is crucial.
Smart Cities and Urbanization: The application of technology to address urban challenges like transportation, energy, and public safety is a growing area.
Agriculture and Food Systems: Technology’s role in improving agricultural productivity, food security, and sustainability deserves more attention.”
Gemini clearly has its own ideas about what constitutes a technology trend. Then I asked Claude.
Claude’s Technology Trends
Here’s what Claude said about McKinsey’s list:
“Areas for improvement:
Overlap and ambiguity: Some categories, like ‘building the digital future’ and ‘cutting edge engineering,’ seem broad and potentially overlapping.
Missing social impact: The list focuses heavily on technological development without explicitly addressing societal impacts or ethical considerations.
Limited global perspective: The trends don’t explicitly address how these technologies might impact or be adopted differently across various global regions.
Absence of data-centric topics: While AI is covered, there’s no specific mention of data governance, privacy, or big data analytics.
Lack of human-centric technology: There’s no explicit mention of technologies focusing on human augmentation, health tech, or human-computer interaction.
Suggested improvements:
Reorganize categories: Create clearer, more distinct categories to reduce overlap and improve clarity.
Add ‘Ethical and Responsible Technology’ as a category: This could cover topics like AI ethics, responsible innovation, and technology governance.
Include ‘Global Technology Adoption and Impact’: Address how these trends might manifest differently across developed and developing nations.
Add ‘Data-Centric Technologies’: Cover trends in data analytics, privacy-preserving technologies, and data governance.
Include ‘Human-Centric Technologies’: Add a category for health tech, human augmentation, and advances in human-computer interaction.
Expand on sustainability: Include more specific trends like circular economy technologies and regenerative technologies.
Add ‘Democratization of Technology’: Discuss trends in low-code/no-code platforms, citizen development, and accessible AI tools.
Consider ‘Resilience Technologies’: Given recent global events, technologies supporting supply chain resilience, remote work, and crisis management could be relevant.”
Well, there you have it, proof that generative AI should be at the top of the list! Or maybe not. It all depends on one’s perspective. (Or maybe generative AI is biased to identify generative AI as first on the list!). But it does make you think about all the work that companies like McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester and all of the others do to generate technology trends that our generative AI friends can generate in a few seconds, doesn’t it? (Almost 100 McKinsey professionals contributed to the recent trends report. Take a moment and ask Claude and friends this question: “what are the major digital technology trends that companies should track to remain competitive?”)
Trends Takeaways
McKinsey identifies some trends that are thought provoking. But like so many other technology trends reports from organizations and platforms like the Gartner Group, Forrester, Deloitte, IDC, Gemini, Claude, Chat and others, McKinsey often identifies the same trends everyone does, especially like generative AI. At the same time, generative AI itself identified some technologies not on everyone’s list (though also with some overlap). I’m sure Chat and Llama would have some things to say about the lists too. (A fun exercise would be to ask Claude, Gemini, Chat and Llama to challenge each other’s lists!)
Remember that trends lists are hypotheses at a point in time, not certainties. They shine a bright light on what respondents and analysts believe are “hot” at the moment they respond to the questions, or when analysts use indicators like Google searches, job descriptions, VC investments and patent filings to assess importance—which could all change quickly and sometimes even overnight.
Lists illuminate our hypotheses informed by our informational orbits. If we only read McKinsey reports, our understanding of trends will be so influenced, but if we’re Gartner-files we will see the world differently. Perhaps we should become generative AI-files which of course represents all of the sources amalgamated into one. (Unless there’s some hallucination.)
Perhaps there’s a lesson here. Perhaps we should approach technology trends as professors who have no stake in the trends game. Professors who understand that “trends” are relatively abstract, temporary and reflective of broad technology movements that over time will land on specific processes, functions and industries. Some of the technologies will land sooner than others. Some will have staying power. Some will disappear, and some will be delayed. No one knows. Remember The Metaverse?
Regardless of the features, business-technologists are obliged to track trends and at least be conversant about the technologies that might, just might, change the world. When I asked Chat to identify the digital technology most likely to impact the world in ten years here’s what Chat said: “Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning are often considered the most broadly transformative due to their extensive applications and potential to drive innovation across multiple fields.” Not completely convinced, I asked Claude the same question. Here’s what Claude said: “Based on current trends and developments, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to be the digital technology with the most significant impact on the world in the next decade.” Gemini agreed: “Artificial Intelligence is the most likely digital technology to dramatically impact the world in the next ten years. Its rapid advancement and broad applications across industries make it a prime candidate for transformative change.”
There you have it. How many technology trends reports do we really need?
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