Bad news suddenly hits Microsoft
NurPhoto via Getty ImagesMicrosoft has a surprising new problem on its hands as it struggles to convince 800 million Windows 10 users to upgrade to Windows 11. With its popular ageing OS approaching end-of-support next October and sales of shiny new AI PCs not hitting the expected mark, this looks like being a critical holiday shopping season.
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As I reported on Monday, the latest Windows stats from November show a marked end to the recent acceleration we’ve seen in Windows 11 upgrades. After eight steady months of transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11, the bad news is a sudden change in direction. And while that shift only accounts for around 1%—somewhere between 10 and 15 million users, the situation is much worse in the key US market.
According to Statcounter, globally Windows 10 market share was up from 61% to 62% over the month, with Windows 11 dropping from more than 35.5% to below 35%. But in the US, Windows 10 was up from 58% to 61%, with Windows 11 sharply down from nearly 40% to below 37% after six months of steady rises.
Windows OS version market share – global
StatcounterThe global numbers fall within the margin of error to some extent, but the US numbers seem more clear-cut. This change comes after Microsoft’s confirmation of a 12-month extended support option for Windows 1 users from next October. This will cost $30 per PC, but for those stubborn Windows 10 holdouts, it could be worth it.
We don’t know what’s driven the specific conversions, but it could well be Windows 10 users revering an upgrade now they know they can stay on Windows 10 with support—meaning security updates—through until; October 2026. And while Microsoft continues to nag users to make thew switch, these constant ads and reminders are not proving as effective as hoped.
Windows OS version market share – United States
StatcounterThe interesting twist to these Windows 10 numbers is the 400 million or so users that don’t have the right hardware to upgrade. While there are various options to upgrade on a non-compatible PC, Microsoft has just firmed up its warning that doing so could stop further updates and even invalidate any hardware warranties still in place.
There is also the Copilot factor. Is there a view amongst Windows 10 users needing a hardware upgrade that the lounger they leave this the more cost effective that move will be? And with AI features still fairly limited, there’s little downside. We already know most hardware upgrades are still for basic devices rather than new AI features.
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I’ve suggested before that the trend-line post the ESU announcement will be interesting to watch, albeit this is a faster change than expected. December’s numbers and the holiday season PC sales data will send a strong signal as to what 2025 will likely look like. And then we will have the ESU take-up to add into the mix.
Microsoft has emphasized repeatedly that Windows 11 is a much safer and more secure OS than Windows 10. And so this change means 10-15 million users now taking risks they would otherwise be protected against. Not good news.
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{Author}Zak Doffman, Contributor{/Author}
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{Keywords}Cybersecurity,/cybersecurity,Innovation,/innovation,Cybersecurity,/cybersecurity,innovation,innovation,standard{/Keywords}
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